Indonesia prepares to carry out B40 in January

Because case, rates might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will require additional 3 mln lots feedstock, GAPKI states

Malaysia palm oil criteria at greatest given that mid-2022

India may withdraw import tax hike in the middle of inflation, Mistry says

(Adds expert remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard rate)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recover in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, but prices are expected to stay elevated due to scheduled expansion of the country's biodiesel mandate, industry analysts said.

The palm oil standard rate in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, raised by sluggish output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the obligatory domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to reduce fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in leading manufacturer Indonesia is anticipated to recuperate by 1.5 million metric heaps compared to an estimated drop of just over a million loads this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study firm Oil World, stated he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million tons next year after a 2.5 million lot drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, supply from somewhere else and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip slightly next year after increasing by an approximated 1 million tons in 2024.

"We would need a healing in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke stated.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The cost rise in palm oil in the past 7 weeks has been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke said, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated extra feedstock of around 3 million lots will be required for B40 implementation, eroding export supply.

The present palm oil premium has actually currently triggered palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.

Malaysian palm oil costs are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric lot in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest given that mid-2022.

"Sentiment right now is red-hot and very bullish, we have to take care," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian consumer products company Godrej International.

He forecast the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above until June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry urged Indonesia to

consider delaying

B40 implementation on concern about its effect on food consumers.

Meanwhile, Mistry expected top palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import task walking

imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)